ZCZC MIATCPAT3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM MITCH ADVISORY NUMBER 51 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 10 PM EST WED NOV 04 1998 ...HEAVY RAINS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND FOR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SOUTHWARD FROM TARPON SPRINGS ON THE WEST COAST AND SOUTHWARD FROM NEW SMYRNA BEACH ON THE EAST COAST. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN CUBA FROM THE PROVINCE OF MATANZAS WESTWARD INCLUDING THE ISLE OF YOUTH...AND FOR THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. AT 10 PM EST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MITCH WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.0 WEST OR ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF FLORIDA. MITCH IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 25 MPH...AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...IN A FEW OF THE BANDS OF HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WIND GUSTS TO 65 MPH WERE REPORTED FROM FOWEY ROCKS LIGHTHOUSE JUST SOUTHEAST OF MIAMI...AND WIND GUSTS TO 59 MPH WERE REPORTED AT MOLASSES REEF OFF THE UPPER-FLORIDA KEYS WITHIN THE PAST FEW HOURS. LITTLE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES. STORM TIDES OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ASTRONOMICAL LEVELS... ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE NEAR AND SOUTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...LOCALLY HIGHER...ARE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH MITCH. THESE RAINS ARE SPREADING WELL AHEAD OF THE CENTER AND CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS FLORIDA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF NEAR TWO INCHES IN AN HOUR WERE RECENTLY REPORTED AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS IN THE GREATER MIAMI AREA. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA TONIGHT. REPEATING THE 10 PM EST POSITION...25.3 N... 84.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 25 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 993 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1 AM EST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 AM EST...THURSDAY. MAYFIELD STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT3 AND WMO HEADER WTNT73 KNHC. NNNN