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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MITCH ADVISORY NUMBER  49
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
9 AM CST WED NOV 04 1998
 
...MITCH REGAINS TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...

AT 9 AM CST...10 AM EST...1500Z...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN
EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND FOR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
SOUTHWARD FROM TARPON SPRINGS ON THE WEST COAST AND SOUTHWARD FROM
NEW SMYRNA BEACH ON THE EAST COAST.

SMALL CRAFT ALONG THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SHOULD REMAIN
IN PORT UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE.
 
AT 9 AM CST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MITCH WAS LOCATED
OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR LATITUDE 21.8 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 88.3 WEST.  THIS POSITION IS ABOUT 520 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF FLORIDA.
 
MITCH IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH AND AN INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  
 
OBSERVATIONS FROM SHIPS INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
INCREASED TO NEAR  45 MPH... 75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  AT THIS
TIME...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS APPEAR TO BE CONFINED TO A BAND OF
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED ABOUT 250 MILES EAST OF THE CENTER. 
LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS  998 MB...29.47 INCHES.

STORM TIDES OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ASTRONOMICAL LEVELS...
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE NEAR AND SOUTH OF WHERE
THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...LOCALLY HIGHER...ARE POSSIBLE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH MITCH.  THESE RAINS ARE SPREADING WELL AHEAD OF THE
CENTER OF MITCH AND HAVE BEGUN TO MOVE OVER FLORIDA. 
 
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
FLORIDA BEGINNING LATER TODAY.
 
REPEATING THE 9 AM CST POSITION...21.8 N... 88.3 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 45 MPH. 
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 998 MB.
 
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT NOON CST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 3 PM
CST.
 
RAPPAPORT
 
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT3 AND WMO HEADER WTNT73 KNHC.
 
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