ZCZC MIATCPAT3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM BULLETIN HURRICANE MITCH ADVISORY NUMBER 31 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 4 AM EST THU OCT 29 1998 ...MITCH WEAKENS TO A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE...STATIONARY NEAR THE NORTH COAST OF HONDURAS...HEAVY RAIN THREAT CONTINUES... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF HONDURAS...GUATEMALA...BELIZE...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM CABO CATOCHE SOUTHWARD...INCLUDING THE OFFSHORE ISLANDS OF THESE AREAS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DANGEROUS HURRICANE. AT 4 AM EST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MITCH WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.9 WEST OR JUST EAST OF PUERTO CASTILLA HONDURAS. MITCH HAS BEEN DRIFTING SOUTHWARD DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND LITTLE OVERALL MOTION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS MORNING...KEEPING THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE VERY NEAR THE NORTH COAST OF HONDURAS. MITCH IS LIKELY TO REMAIN A THREAT TO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR ...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES... 45 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 979 MB...28.91 INCHES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS OF 15 TO 25 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF HONDURAS AND OTHER PARTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. STORM TIDES OF 4 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ASTRONOMICAL LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES. DANGEROUS COASTAL FLOODING DUE TO STRONG ONSHORE WINDS AND WAVES IS ALSO OCCURRING OVER OTHER COASTAL LOCATIONS IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA. REPEATING THE 4 AM EST POSITION...16.0 N... 85.9 W. MOVEMENT... ...STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 85 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 979 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 7 AM EST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 AM EST. GUINEY STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT3 AND WMO HEADER WTNT73 KNHC. NNNN