ZCZC MIATCPAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
HURRICANE MITCH ADVISORY NUMBER  21
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
4 PM EST MON OCT 26 1998

...MITCH STRENGTHENS TO 180 MPH...
   A STRONG CATEGORY FIVE ON THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE...

THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR ALL OF
THEIR COAST FROM THE NICARAGUA BORDER TO THE GUATEMALA BORDER.  A
HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SWAN ISLAND.  A HURRICANE
WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS.  INTERESTS IN BELIZE...THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF GUATEMALA AND
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS EXTREME HURRICANE.
 
AT 4 PM EST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MITCH WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE  83.6 WEST OR ABOUT 35 MILES...55
KM...SOUTHEAST OF SWAN ISLAND.  THIS POSITION IS ALSO ABOUT 100
MILES...160 KM...NORTH OF THE COAST OF HONDURAS.
 
MITCH IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST NEAR  8 MPH...13 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 180 MPH...285
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY MAY OCCUR
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT MITCH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AN
EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE CAPABLE OF CAUSING CATASTROPHIC
DAMAGE.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  60 MILES... 95 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 175 MILES...280 KM.
 
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS  906 MB...26.75 INCHES.
 
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE LIKELY IN THE OUTER RAINBANDS
AFFECTING THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND PORTIONS OF HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA. 
MUCH HIGHER AMOUNTS MAY OCCUR OVER NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS AND OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN ELSEWHERE.  THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

COASTAL FLOODING FROM STRONG ONSHORE WINDS AND DANGEROUS BATTERING
WAVES IS OCCURING OVER PORTIONS OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...SWAN ISLAND
AND THE COAST OF HONDURAS.
 
REPEATING THE 4 PM EST POSITION...17.1 N... 83.6 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NORTHWEST NEAR  8 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...
180 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 906 MB.
 
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 7 PM EST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 PM
EST.
 
LAWRENCE
 
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT3 AND WMO HEADER WTNT73 KNHC.
 
 
NNNN