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BULLETIN
HURRICANE MITCH ADVISORY NUMBER  20
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
10 AM EST MON OCT 26 1998
 
...EXTEMELY DANGEROUS HURRICAN MITCH DRIFTS SLOWLY WESTWARD ACROSS  
 THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HONDURAS FROM LIMON
EASTWARD TO THE NICARAGUA BORDER...AND FOR SWAN ISLAND.  A HURRICANE
WARNING MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE NORTH COAST OF HONDURAS WEST OF LIMON
LATER TODAY.  A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN
IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.  ALL INTERESTS IN BELIZE AND THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND CUBA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS DANGEROUS HURRICANE.
 
AT 10 AM EST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MITCH WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE  82.9 WEST OR ABOUT 85 MILES
...135 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SWAN ISLAND.  THIS POSITION IS ALSO
ABOUT 115 MILES...185 KM...NORTHEAST OF THE COAST OF EASTERN
HONDURAS.
 
MITCH IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR  8 MPH...13 KM/HR.  A SLOW
MOSTLY WESTWARD DRIFT IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 155 MPH...250 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  MITCH IS A BORDERLINE CATEGORY FOUR/CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE
ON THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON SCALE.  SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE
POSSIBLE TODAY...BUT MITCH IS EXPETED TO REMAIN A VERY DANGEROUS
HURRICANE CAPABLE OF CAUSING EXTREME DAMAGE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  70 MILES...110 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 145 MILES...230 KM.  HURRICANE CONDITIONS MAY SOON BE OCCURRING
AT SWAN ISLAND.
 
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS  923 MB...27.26 INCHES.
  
OUTER RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE HURRICANE ARE AFFECTING THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS AND HONDURAS AND NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA.  RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH GREATER AMOUNTS OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN...ARE POSSIBLE.  THIS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
 
COASTAL FLOODING FROM ONSHORE WINDS AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES
IS OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...SWAN ISLAND AND
THE COAST OF HONDURAS.
 
ALL INTERESTS IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS VERY DANGEROUS HURRICANE.
  
REPEATING THE 10 AM EST POSITION...16.7 N... 82.9 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR  8 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH. 
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 923 MB.
 
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1 PM EST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 PM
EST.
 
LAWRENCE
 
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT3 AND WMO HEADER WTNT73 KNHC.
 
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