ZCZC MIATCPAT3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM BULLETIN HURRICANE MITCH ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 10 AM EST SUN OCT 25 1998 A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND FOR EASTERN CUBA FROM CAMAGUEY TO GUANTANAMO. A HURRICANE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS LATER TODAY. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE COLOMBIAN TERRITORIAL ISLANDS LOCATED IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. AT 10 AM EST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MITCH WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.8 WEST OR ABOUT 230 MILES...370 KM...WEST-SOUTH WEST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA. THIS POSITION IS ALSO ABOUT 225 MILES...360 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. MITCH IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH ...11 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 130 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. MITCH IS NOW A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES... 75 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 145 MILES...230 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 942 MB...27.82 INCHES. RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE HURRICANE ARE AFFECTING JAMAICA AND COULD BRING 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN...GREATER AMOUNTS IN HIGHER TERRAIN...OVER THE ISLAND IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS COULD LEAD TO DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. ALL INTERESTS IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DANGEROUS HURRICANE. REPEATING THE 10 AM EST POSITION...16.3 N... 79.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 942 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1 PM EST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 PM EST. LAWRENCE STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT3 AND WMO HEADER WTNT73 KNHC. NNNN