ZCZC MIATCPAT3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM BULLETIN HURRICANE MITCH ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 4 AM EST SUN OCT 25 1998 ...DANGEROUS HURRICANE MITCH MOVING SLOWLY OVER THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN CUBA FROM CAMAGUEY TO GUANTANAMO. AT 4 AM EST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MITCH WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.2 WEST OR ABOUT 210 MILES...335 KM...SOUTHWEST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA. MITCH IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH...205 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKE MITCH A POWERFUL CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND MITCH COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 145 MILES...230 KM. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 949 MB...28.02 INCHES. RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE HURRICANE ARE AFFECTING JAMAICA AND COULD BRING 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN...GREATER AMOUNTS IN HIGHER TERRAIN...OVER THE ISLAND IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS COULD LEAD TO DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. ALL INTERESTS IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DANGEROUS HURRICANE. REPEATING THE 4 AM EST POSITION...16.0 N...79.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD ...WEST NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 949 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 7 AM EST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 AM EST. MAYFIELD STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT3 AND WMO HEADER WTNT73 KNHC. NNNN