ZCZC MIATCPAT3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM BULLETIN HURRICANE MITCH ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT SAT OCT 24 1998 ...MITCH INTENSIFIES TO A DANGEROUS CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN CUBA FROM CAMAGUEY TO GUANTANAMO. AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MITCH WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.4 WEST OR ABOUT 190 MILES...305 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA. MITCH IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH ... 7 KM/HR...AND A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 120 MPH...195 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING TO A CATEGORY 4 ON THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON SCALE IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 965 MB...28.50 INCHES. RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE HURRICANE ARE AFFECTING JAMAICA AND COULD BRING 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN...GREATER AMOUNTS IN HIGHER TERRAIN...OVER THE ISLAND IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS COULD LEAD TO DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. INTERESTS IN ALL OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DANGEROUS HURRICANE. REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...15.7 N... 78.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 965 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 AM EST...SUNDAY. JARVINEN STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT3 AND WMO HEADER WTNT73 KNHC. NNNN