ZCZC MIATCPAT3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM BULLETIN HURRICANE MITCH ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT SAT OCT 24 1998 ...MITCH BECOMING A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HURRICANE... AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR JAMAICA AND THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR EASTERN CUBA FROM CAMAGUEY TO GUANTANAMO. AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MITCH WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.2 WEST OR ABOUT 200 MILES... 325 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA. MITCH IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. ON THIS TRACK... RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE HURRICANE SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT JAMAICA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. MITCH IS FORECAST TO BECOME A DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES... 75 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM. LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 976 MB...28.82 INCHES. INTERESTS IN ALL OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DANGEROUS HURRICANE. REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...15.3 N... 78.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 976 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM EDT. AVILA STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT3 AND WMO HEADER WTNT73 KNHC. NNNN