ZCZC MIATCPAT3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM BULLETIN HURRICANE MITCH ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT SAT OCT 24 1998 AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR JAMAICA. A HURRICANE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR JAMAICA LATER TODAY. AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MITCH WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.9 WEST OR ABOUT 225 MILES...360 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA. MITCH IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH AT 7 MPH...11 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY OR TOMORROW. IF THIS TURN DOES NOT TAKE PLACE...THE HURRICANE CONDITIONS COULD REACH JAMAICA IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES... 75 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES. INTERESTS IN ALL OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MITCH. REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...14.9 N... 77.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 987 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM EDT. LAWRENCE STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT3 AND WMO HEADER WTNT73 KNHC. NNNN