ZCZC MIATCPAT2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM BULLETIN HURRICANE GEORGES ADVISORY NUMBER 27 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 11 PM AST MON SEP 21 1998 ...DANGEROUS HURRICANE GEORGES LASHING PUERTO RICO... ...DAMAGING WINDS...TORRENTIAL RAIN...HIGH SURGE AND WAVES TO CONTINUE... AT 11 PM AST...0300 UTC...HURRICANE WARNINGS ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR HAITI...THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. HURRICANE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN CUBA FROM THE PROVINCE OF LAS TUNAS EASTWARD TO GUANTANAMO. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MAINTAIN PRECAUTIONS UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE. AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GEORGES WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.9 WEST. THIS POSITION IS INLAND IN THE VICINITY OF PONCE...OR ABOUT 65 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO. OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS GEORGES HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD. A MOTION TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY. REMEMBER...IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE PRECISE FORECAST TRACK SINCE THE HURRICANE IS NOT A POINT AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS COVER A WIDE SWATH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 110 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 150 MPH ARE POSSIBLE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN WIND SPEED ARE POSSIBLE...BUT GEORGES IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A DANGEROUS HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 978 MB...28.88 INCHES. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...LOCALLY 20 INCHES OR MORE OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN...ARE LIKELY NEAR THE PATH OF GEORGES... ESPECIALLY AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE CENTER. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS... ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH GEORGES. REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...18.1 N... 66.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 978 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1 AM AST AND 3 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM AST...TUESDAY. GUINEY STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT2 AND WMO HEADER WTNT72 KNHC. NNNN