ZCZC MIATCPAT2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM BULLETIN HURRICANE GEORGES ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 5 PM AST SUN SEP 20 1998 ...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE CLOSING IN ON THE ISLANDS OF THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN... HURRICANE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN SEA FROM DOMINICA NORTHWARD AND WESTWARD TO PUERTO RICO. AT 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM MARTINIQUE SOUTHWARD TO ST. LUCIA. A REMINDER: A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS. IF YOU ARE ANYWHERE IN THE WARNING AREA...YOU SHOULD PREPARE FOR THE WORST. AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GEORGES WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.9 WEST OR ABOUT 95 MILES...150 KM...EAST OF GUADELOUPE IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE SHORTLY AND PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE NEARING COMPLETION. GEORGES IS MOVING SLIGHTLY NORTH OF WEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR. A MOTION TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTIES IN FORECASTING...IT IS NOT POSSIBLE TO SPECIFY THE PRECISE PATH THAT THE EYE OF GEORGE WILL FOLLOW. REMEMBER: THE HURRICANE IS NOT A POINT...DESTRUCTIVE WINDS COVER A WIDE SWATH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 130 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GEORGES IS A BORDERLINE CATEGORY 3/CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN WIND SPEED ARE POSSIBLE...BUT GEORGES IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A VERY DANGEROUS HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...SIMILAR IN STRENGTH AND SIZE TO HURRICANE HUGO WHEN IT HIT THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN ISLANDS IN 1989. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN ARE POSSIBLE EVEN OUTSIDE OF THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE RECENTLY REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 956 MB...28.23 INCHES. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...LOCALLY HIGHER OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN...ARE LIKELY NEAR THE PATH OF GEORGES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 10 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS... ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES ARE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE HURRICANE INTERACTS WITH THE ISLANDS. REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...16.5 N... 59.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 956 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM AST. PASCH STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT2 AND WMO HEADER WTNT72 KNHC. NNNN