ZCZC MIATCPAT2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM BULLETIN HURRICANE GEORGES ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 5 AM AST SUN SEP 20 1998 ...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE HEADING TOWARD LEEWARD ISLANDS... AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE HURRICANE WARNING IS EXTENDED WESTWARD TO INCLUDE THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. HURRICANE WARNINGS ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN SEA FROM DOMINICA NORTHWARD AND WESTWARD TO PUERTO RICO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM MARTINIQUE SOUTHWARD TO ST. LUCIA. AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GEORGES WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.1 WEST OR ABOUT 290 MILES ...470 KM...EAST OF GUADELOUPE IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. GEORGES IS MOVING A LITTLE NORTH OF DUE WESTWARD AT 17 MPH... 28 KM/HR...AND A MOTION TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TODAY. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT. HOWEVER...WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THESE ISLANDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DETERIORATE EARLIER TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 150 MPH...240 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN WIND SPEED ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GEORGES IS SIMILAR IN STRENGTH AND SIZE TO HURRICANE HUGO WHEN IT HIT THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN ISLANDS IN 1989. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 939 MB...27.73 INCHES. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...LOCALLY HIGHER OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN... ARE LIKELY NEAR THE PATH OF GEORGES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 10 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS... ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES ARE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE HURRICANE INTERACTS WITH THE ISLANDS. REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...16.1 N... 57.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 939 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM AST. LAWRENCE STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT2 AND WMO HEADER WTNT72 KNHC. NNNN