ZCZC MIATCPAT2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM BULLETIN HURRICANE GEORGES ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 11 PM AST SAT SEP 19 1998 ...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE GEORGES HEADING TOWARD THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES FROM DOMINICA NORTHWARD THROUGH ANGUILLA...EXCEPT FOR THE FRENCH ISLAND OF ST. BARTHELEMY AND THE FRENCH PORTION OF ST. MARTIN. A HURRICANE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED WESTWARD FROM ANGUILLA ON SUNDAY MORNING. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MARTINIQUE SOUTHWARD TO ST. LUCIA...FOR THE BRITISH AND U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...ST. BARTHELEMY ...FRENCH ST. MARTIN AND FOR PUERTO RICO. AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENTS OF ST. LUCIA AND MARTINIQUE HAVE ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THOSE ISLANDS. AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE WELL-DEFINED EYE OF HURRICANE GEORGES WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 55.8 WEST OR ABOUT 360 MILES ...580 KM...EAST OF GUADELOUPE IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS GEORGES HAS WOBBLED TOWARD THE WEST. A WEST TO WEST NORTHWEST MOTION NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR...IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL BE NEAR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS LATE SUNDAY. HOWEVER... WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THOSE ISLANDS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE LATE SUNDAY MORNING. AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE REPORTS INDICATE THAT GEORGES IS NOW AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 150 MPH...240 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GEORGES IS NOW SIMILAR IN STRENGTH AND SIZE TO EXTREMELY DESTRUCTIVE HURRICANE HUGO WHEN IT HIT THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN IN 1989. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM... MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 939 MB...27.73 INCHES. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...LOCALLY HIGHER OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN... ARE LIKELY NEAR THE PATH OF GEORGES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 10 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS... ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES ARE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE HURRICANE INTERACTS WITH THE ISLANDS. REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...15.8 N... 55.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 939 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM AST...SUNDAY. MAYFIELD STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT2 AND WMO HEADER WTNT72 KNHC. NNNN