ZCZC MIATCPAT2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM BULLETIN HURRICANE GEORGES ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 5 PM AST SAT SEP 19 1998 ...GEORGES NOW A STRONG CATEGORY FOUR...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE HEADING TOWARD THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... AT 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE RESPECTIVE GOVERNMENTS OF THE DIFFERENT ISLANDS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES HAVE ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FROM DOMINICA NORTHWARD TO ANGUILLA EXCEPT FOR THE FRENCH ISLAND OF ST. BARTHELEMY AND THE FRENCH PORTION OF ST. MARTIN WHICH REMAIN UNDER A HURRICANE WATCH. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY IN THE WARNING AREA SHOULD BE RUSHED COMPLETION. AT 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...A HURRICANE WATCH IS ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO. A HURRICANE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM MARTINIQUE SOUTHWARD TO ST. LUCIA...FOR THE BRITISH AND U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...ST. BARTHELEMY ...FRENCH ST. MARTIN AND FOR PUERTO RICO. AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE WELL-DEFINED EYE OF HURRICANE GEORGES WAS LOCATED BY RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT NEAR LATITUDE 15.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 54.4 WEST OR ABOUT 450 MILES...725 KM...EAST OF GUADELOUPE IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. GEORGES IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL BE NEAR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS LATE SUNDAY. HOWEVER...WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THOSE ISLANDS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE BY SUNDAY MORNING. AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE REPORTS INDICATE THAT GEORGES IS NOW AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 145 MPH...230 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES... 75 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 944 MB...27.88 INCHES. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES...LOCALLY HIGHER OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN... ARE LIKELY NEAR THE PATH OF GEORGES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 10 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS... ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES ARE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE HURRICANE INTERACTS WITH THE ISLANDS. REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...15.7 N... 54.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 944 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM AST. AVILA STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT2 AND WMO HEADER WTNT72 KNHC. NNNN