ZCZC MIATCPAT1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM FRANCES ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 10 AM CDT FRI SEP 11 1998 ...HEAVY RAIN AND FLOOD THREAT SPREADS INLAND... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE GULF OF MEXICO COAST FROM BAFFIN BAY TEXAS NORTH AND EAST TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA. WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT FROM MORGAN CITY TO PENSACOLA FLORIDA...AND SOUTHWARD FROM BAFFIN BAY THROUGH THE NORTHEAST COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE. AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRANCES WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 97.7 WEST OR ABOUT 80 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SAN ANTONIO TEXAS. FRANCES IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS..MAINLY ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE WATERS OF THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO. FRANCES IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 290 MILES MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE TODAY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS OF UP TO 6 TO 12 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE TRACK OF FRANCES...WITH EVEN HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY. CONSULT STATEMENTS FROM YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE FOR DETAILS CONCERNING RAIN AND FLOODING OVER TEXAS AND LOUISIANA. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED TORNADOES ALONG THE COAST OF LOUISIANA...OVER SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS...AND OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. REPEATING THE 10 AM CDT POSITION...28.6 N... 97.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 993 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 PM CDT. LAWRENCE NO STRIKE PROBABILITIES ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY. NNNN