ZCZC MIATCPAT1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM COR BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM FRANCES ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 4 AM CDT FRI SEP 11 1998 ...CORRECTED FORWARD SPEED TO 14 MPH ...FLOOD THREAT SPREADING INLAND OVER TEXAS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM BAFFIN BAY TEXAS NORTH AND EAST TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA...BUT WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AT 4 AM CDT ...0900Z...THE WARNINGS EAST OF MORGAN CITY AND SOUTH OF BAFFIN BAY ARE DISCONTINUED. ALSO AT 4 AM CDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ITS COAST. SMALL CRAFT FROM MORGAN CITY TO PENSACOLA FLORIDA...AND SOUTHWARD FROM BAFFIN BAY THROUGH THE NORTHEAST COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE. AT 4 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRANCES WAS LOCATED INLAND NEAR LATITUDE 28.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 97.5 WEST OR NEAR REFUGIO TEXAS. FRANCES IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...AND THIS DIRECTION OF MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF FRANCES AND ITS FLOODING RAINS WILL BE MOVING FARTHER INLAND OVER TEXAS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...AND ARE OCCURRING PRIMARILY WITHIN 50 MILES OF THE CENTER AND IN SQUALLS OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO. THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUTOMATED SURFACE STATION AT VICTORIA TEXAS REPORTED SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...39 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO 47 MPH A FEW HOURS AGO. FURTHER WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND FRANCES IS LIKELY TO BE DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY EARLY AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 290 MILES...465 KM FROM THE CENTER OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB...29.29 INCHES. STORM TIDES ARE LIKELY TO SLOWLY DECREASE DURING THE DAY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE TRACK OF FRANCES...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE OVER PORTIONS OF TEXAS AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED TORNADOES ALONG THE COAST OF LOUISIANA AND OVER SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. REPEATING THE 4 AM CDT POSITION...28.5 N... 97.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 992 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 7 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 AM CDT. RAPPAPORT STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT1 AND WMO HEADER WTNT71 KNHC. NNNN