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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FRANCES ADVISORY NUMBER  10
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
10 PM CDT THU SEP 10 1998
 
...FRANCES DRENCHING THE TEXAS COAST...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE GULF OF MEXICO
COAST FROM TAMPICO MEXICO NORTH AND EAST TO THE MOUTH OF THE
PEARL RIVER IN MISSISSIPPI...INCLUDING PONTCHARTRAIN AND MAUREPAS.
 
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER
MISSISSIPPI TO PENSACOLA FLORIDA.
 
AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE POORLY DEFINED AND ELONGATED CENTER OF
TROPICAL STORM FRANCES WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.6 NORTH
...LONGITUDE 95.9 WEST OR ABOUT 70 MILES...115 KM...SOUTH SOUTHEAST
OF PORT O'CONNOR TEXAS.
 
FRANCES HAS BEEN MEANDERING DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS BUT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH... 9 KM/HR ON
FRIDAY. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF FRANCES SHOULD REACH THE MID
TEXAS COAST WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS.  

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR  65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED BEFORE THE
CENTER REACHES THE COAST.
 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 345 MILES...555 KM
TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.  VERY STRONG SQUALLS ARE
CONTINUING TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE MID TO UPPER TEXAS COAST AND
WIND GUSTS TO NEAR HURRICANE FORCE MAY BE LOCALLY EXPERIENCED. 
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS  994 MB...29.35 INCHES.
 
TIDES OF 4 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST
LOUISIANA COASTS...AND 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA COAST ARE LIKELY...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE WAVES. FLOODING OF
COMMUNITIES AND HIGHWAYS HAS BEEN REPORTED AT VARIOUS LOCATIONS IN
THE WARNED AREA. 
 
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
PORTIONS OF TEXAS...EXTREME NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND SOUTHWEST
LOUISIANA...WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA.

THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED TORNADOES ALONG THE COASTS OF
TEXAS AND LOUISIANA.
 
REPEATING THE 10 PM CDT POSITION...27.6 N... 95.9 W.  MOVEMENT...
CURRENTLY MEANDERING BUT EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 6 MPH. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 65 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 994
MB.
 
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 AM
CDT...FRIDAY.
 
AVILA
 
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT1 AND WMO HEADER WTNT71 KNHC.
 
 
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