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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FRANCES ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
4 PM CDT WED SEP 09 1998

...TROPICAL STORM FRANCES FORMS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...
 
AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN MEXICO FROM TAMPICO NORTHWARD. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM HIGH ISLAND TEXAS TO
TAMPICO MEXICO.

SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT FROM HIGH ISLAND TO THE MOUTH OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
 
AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE BROAD CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRANCES WAS
ESTIMATED IN THE VICINITY OF LATITUDE 25.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE  94.7
WEST OR ABOUT 170 MILES...275 KM...EAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.
 
LITTLE MOVEMENT HAS BEEN NOTED DURING THE DAY BASED ON
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT... SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...SATELLITE PICTURES
...AND RADAR DATA. HOWEVER A WEST-NORTHWEST DRIFT IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.   

THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR  40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS.  SOME GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 290 MILES...465 KM
FROM THE CENTER MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.
 
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS  998 MB...29.47 INCHES.

TIDES OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ASTRONOMICAL TIDES...ACCOMPANIED
BY LARGE WAVES...ARE ALREADY AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS COAST. 

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
COASTAL SECTIONS OF TEXAS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. 
 
REPEATING THE 4 PM CDT POSITION...25.6 N... 94.7 W.  MOVEMENT...
NEARLY STATIONARY.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 40 MPH.  MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE... 998 MB.
 
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 7 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 PM
CDT.
 
GUINEY
 
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT1 AND WMO HEADER WTNT71 KNHC.
 
 
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