ZCZC MIATCPAT5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM COR BULLETIN HURRICANE EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 4 PM CDT WED SEP 02 1998 ..COR TO TIME OF CENTER CROSSING THE COAST...EARLY THURSDAY VERSUS TONIGHT...AND RPT SECTION ...HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE MEASURES WINDS NEAR 100 MPH... HURRICANE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FROM PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER FLORIDA. TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF THE SUWANNEE RIVER TO THE ANCLOTE KEYS FLORIDA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF PASCAGOULA TO GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS. AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.4 WEST OR ABOUT 100 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF DESTIN FLORIDA. EARL MOVED LITTLE DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS BUT IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER WILL REACH THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA EARLY THURSDAY. THIS IS A BROAD AND DIFFUSE CENTER AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS...MAINLY TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE CENTER...COULD REACH THE WARNING AREA WELL BEFORE THE CENTER CROSSES THE COAST. THE CENTER OF EARL HAS BEEN REFORMING AROUND A MUCH LARGER CIRCULATION AND THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE FUTURE TRACK OF THE HURRICANE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH IN A SMALL AREA WITHIN STRONG RAINBANDS TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES THE COAST. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 989 MB...29.21 INCHES. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY ALONG THE PATH OF THE HURRICANE. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 8 TO 11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE BATTERING WAVES ARE POSSIBLE NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER CROSSES THE COAST. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TONIGHT. REPEATING THE 4 PM CDT POSITION...29.2 N... 87.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 989 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 7 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 PM CDT. AVILA STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT5 AND WMO HEADER WTNT75 KNHC. NNNN