ZCZC MIATCPAT2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM BULLETIN HURRICANE BONNIE ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT MON AUG 24 1998 ...DANGEROUS HURRICANE BONNIE DRIFTING ERRATICALLY... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND A A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. BONNIE COULD THREATEN THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES WITHIN THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND INTERESTS ALONG THE COAST SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DANGEROUS HURRICANE. AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BONNIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.2 WEST OR ABOUT 165 MILES ...265 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF SAN SALVADOR ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS. THE CENTER OF BONNIE CONTINUES TO DRIFT ERRATICALLY...BUT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT 5 MPH...8 KM/HR ...TODAY AND TO GRADUALLY INCREASE ITS FORWARD SPEED. IF THIS OCCURS...A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST LATER TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY MAY OCCUR BUT BONNIE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON SCALE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BONNIE IS A LARGE HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 963 MB...28.44 INCHES. A STORM SURGE OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS COULD OCCUR OVER PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA IN THE BAHAMAS. RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH BONNIE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF THREE TO FIVE INCHES ARE LIKELY. REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...25.2 N... 72.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD ...NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 963 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM EDT. LAWRENCE STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT2 AND WMO HEADER WTNT72 KNHC. NNNN