ZCZC MIATCPAT2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM BULLETIN HURRICANE BONNIE ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT SUN AUG 23 1998 ...POWERFUL HURRICANE BONNIE MOVING LITTLE... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. BONNIE COULD THREATEN THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES WITHIN THE NEXT FEW DAYS. RESIDENTS ALONG THE COAST SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS LARGE AND DANGEROUS HURRICANE. AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BONNIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.9 WEST OR ABOUT 180 MILES...290 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF SAN SALVADOR ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS. THE CENTER OF BONNIE HAS BEEN WOBBLING TOWARD THE NORTH OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN DRIFTING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR...LATER TONIGHT. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON MONDAY WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. IF THIS NORTHWEST MOTION OCCURS...AS FORECAST ...A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST ON MONDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY SHOULD BE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT BONNIE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. BONNIE IS A LARGE HURRICANE WITH HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTENDING OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTENDING OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM... MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 954 MB...28.17 INCHES. A STORM SURGE OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS COULD OCCUR OVER PORTIONS OF THE WARNED AREA IN THE BAHAMAS. RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH BONNIE ARE SPREADING OVER PORTIONS OF THE WARNED AREA...PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS. THREE TO FIVE INCHES OF RAIN MAY OCCUR OVER PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS. LARGE SWELLS ARE PROPAGATING WELL AHEAD OF THE HURRICANE AND ARE IMPACTING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. SEE STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES. REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...25.1 N... 71.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 954 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM EDT...MONDAY. MAYFIELD STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT2 AND WMO HEADER WTNT72 KNHC. NNNN