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BULLETIN
HURRICANE BONNIE ADVISORY NUMBER  12
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SAT AUG 22 1998

..COR FOR TIME 

...POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HURRICANE BONNIE NEARING THE BAHAMAS...
 
AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...THE ISLANDS NORTH AND
WEST OF CAT ISLAND AND GREAT EXUMA.
 
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS.
 
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.
 
BONNIE COULD THREATEN THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES WITHIN THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.  RESIDENTS ALONG THE COAST SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THE HURRICANE.
 
AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BONNIE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 22.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE  70.6 WEST  OR ABOUT 95 MILES
...150 KM...NORTH NORTHEAST OF TURK ISLAND.
 
BONNIE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY.
THEREAFTER...A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED.  ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF BONNIE WILL
BE PASSING CLOSE AND TO THE NORTH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL
BAHAMAS.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO  85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS.  ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS AND BONNIE COULD EVENTUALLY REACH CATEGORY THREE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE.
 
BONNIE IS A LARGE HURRICANE WITH HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTENDING
OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES... 75 KM... FROM THE CENTER.  TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM...TO THE NORTH
OF THE CENTER AND ABOUT 100 MILES...160 KM...TO THE SOUTH OF THE
CENTER.
 
LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES.
 
A STORM SURGE OF 3 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS COULD OCCUR IN
THE WARNED AREA.
 
RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH BONNIE ARE BEGINNING TO SPREAD INTO THE
WARNED AREA...PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS AND STRONG GUSTY
WINDS. FIVE TO TEN INCHES OF RAIN MAY OCCUR ALONG THE PATH OF THE
HURRICANE.
 
REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...22.7 N... 70.6 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 85
MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 980 MB.
 
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM
EDT.
 
AVILA
 
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT2 AND WMO HEADER WTNT72 KNHC.
 
 
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