ZCZC MIATCPAT1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ALEX ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 11 AM AST SAT AUG 01 1998 ...ALEX VERY DISORGANIZED...BARELY A TROPICAL STORM... AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE POORLY DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALEX WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 55.0 WEST OR ABOUT 370 MILES ...595 KM...EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. ALEX IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK ALEX WILL BE PASSING NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ON SUNDAY WITH MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND SQUALLS OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO BE IN THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL DETERMINE IF ALEX HAS WEAKENED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR NOT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 145 MILES ...230 KM TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES. REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...17.5 N... 55.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM AST. AVILA STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT1 AND WMO HEADER WTNT71 KNHC. NNNN