ZCZC MIATCPAT2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM BULLETIN HURRICANE GEORGES INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 21A NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 2 PM AST SUN SEP 20 1998 ...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE BEARING DOWN ON THE ISLANDS OF THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN... HURRICANE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN SEA FROM DOMINICA NORTHWARD AND WESTWARD TO PUERTO RICO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM MARTINIQUE SOUTHWARD TO ST. LUCIA. A REMINDER: A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS. IF YOU ARE ANYWHERE IN THE WARNING AREA...YOU SHOULD PREPARE FOR THE WORST. AT 2 PM AST...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GEORGES WAS LOCATED BY AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 59.2 WEST OR ABOUT 150 MILES...245 KM...EAST OF GUADELOUPE IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. GEORGES IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR. A MOTION TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTIES IN FORECASTING...IT IS NOT POSSIBLE TO SPECIFY THE PRECISE PATH THAT THE EYE OF GEORGE WILL FOLLOW. BUT...REMEMBER: THE HURRICANE IS NOT A POINT...DESTRUCTIVE WINDS COVER A WIDE SWATH. WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE SHORTLY AND PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE NEARING COMPLETION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN WIND SPEED ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GEORGES IS SIMILAR IN STRENGTH AND SIZE TO HURRICANE HUGO WHEN IT HIT THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN ISLANDS IN 1989. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN ARE POSSIBLE EVEN OUTSIDE OF THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE. THE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 949 MB...28.02 INCHES. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...LOCALLY HIGHER OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN...ARE LIKELY NEAR THE PATH OF GEORGES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 10 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS... ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES ARE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE HURRICANE INTERACTS WITH THE ISLANDS. REPEATING THE 2 PM AST POSITION...16.4 N... 59.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 949 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM AST. PASCH NNNN