ZCZC MIATCPAT5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM BULLETIN HURRICANE EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 1 PM CDT WED SEP 02 1998 ...EARL MOVING LITTLE...HIGHLY UNCERTAIN FORECAST TRACK...SOMEWHAT STRONGER... HURRICANE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FROM PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER FLORIDA. TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF SUWANNEE RIVER TO ANCLOTE KEYS FLORIDA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF PASCAGOULA TO GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS. AT 1 PM CDT...1800Z...THE BROAD AND DIFFUSE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.0 WEST OR ABOUT 140 MILES SOUTHWEST OF DESTIN FLORIDA. EARL HAS BEEN MOVING LITTLE DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS BUT IS EXPECTED TO RESUME A SLOW NORTHEAST MOTION TODAY. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER WILL REACH THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA TONIGHT. THIS IS A BROAD AND DIFFUSE CENTER AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS...MAINLY TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE CENTER...COULD REACH THE WARNING AREA WELL BEFORE THE CENTER CROSSES THE COAST TONIGHT. THE CENTER OF EARL HAS BEEN REFORMING AROUND A MUCH LARGER CIRCULATION AND THERE IS A CONSIDERABLY UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE FUTURE TRACK OF THE HURRICANE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 90 MPH IN A SMALL AREA WITHIN STRONG RAINBANDS TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER ...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES THE COAST. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. LATEST MINIMUM PRESSURE REPORTED BY A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY ALONG THE PAST OF THE HURRICANE. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 8 TO 11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER CROSSES THE COAST. REPEATING THE 1 PM CDT POSITION...28.8 N... 88.0 W. MOVEMENT NEARLY STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 90 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 4 PM CDT. AVILA NNNN