ZCZC MIATCPAT5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 7 AM CDT WED SEP 02 1998 ...EARL MAY BE SHIFTING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST... HURRICANE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO DESTIN FLORIDA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF DESTIN TO APPALACHACOLA FLORIDA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF MORGAN CITY TO CAMERON LOUISIANA. INTERESTS...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE COAST...AROUND THE BIG BEND AREA OF FLORIDA SHOULD BE READY TO TAKE QUICK ACTIONS IF WARNINGS ARE SHIFTED EASTWARD THIS MORINING. SATELLITE...RADAR AND SURFACE REPORTS SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER OF EARL CONTINUES TO SHIFT TOWARD THE EAST. A HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS ENROUTE TO EARL AND IF IT CONFIRMS THIS TREND...WARNINGS WILL BE ADJUSTED EASTWARD. AT 7 AM CDT...1200Z...THE ELONGATED AND DIFFUSE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EARL APPEARS TO HAVE SHIFTED NORTHEASTWARD AND IT WAS ESTIMATED BY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 28.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.5 WEST OR ABOUT 180 MILES SOUTHWEST OF DESTIN FLORIDA. EARL HAS BEEN MOVING OR SHIFTING NORTHEASTWARD ABOUT 10 TO 15 MPH. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST IN THE WARNING AREA TODAY. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE FUTURE TRACK OF THE STORM. MAXIMUM WINDS ARE 50 TO 60 MPH. EARL HAS NOT STRENGTHENED TO A HURRICANE BUT COULD STILL DO SO TODAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...MAINLY EAST FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY ALONG THE PATH OF EARL. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER CROSSES THE COAST. REPEATING THE 7 AM CDT POSITION...28.5 N... 88.5 W. MOVEMENT NORTHEASTWARD 10 TO 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 996 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 10 AM CDT. AVILA NNNN