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TROPICAL STORM BONNIE PROBABILITIES NUMBER   7
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM AST FRI AUG 21 1998
 
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
 
AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF BONNIE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 19.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE  64.0 WEST
 
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH  2AM AST MON AUG 24 1998
 
LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E   LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E
 
22.0N  68.9W      42  X  X  X 42   MYEG 235N 758W     X  2  8  4 14
23.4N  71.4W       5 23  X  X 28   MYAK 241N 776W     X  X  4  6 10
24.9N  73.0W       X 13  7  2 22   MYNN 251N 775W     X  X  4  8 12
TKPK 173N 627W    47  X  X  X 47   MYGF 266N 787W     X  X  1  8  9
TNCM 181N 631W    **  X  X  X **   ST CROIX VI       14  X  X  X 14
TISX 177N 648W    14  X  X  X 14   ST THOMAS VI      43  X  X  X 43
TIST 183N 650W    43  X  X  X 43   SAN JUAN PR       20  X  X  X 20
TJPS 180N 666W     4  X  X  X  4   PONCE PR           4  X  X  X  4
MDSD 185N 697W     2  1  X  X  3   MARATHON FL        X  X  X  3  3
MUGM 200N 751W     X  1  2  1  4   MIAMI FL           X  X  X  5  5
MUCM 214N 779W     X  X  1  3  4   W PALM BEACH FL    X  X  X  5  5
MUCF 221N 805W     X  X  X  2  2   FT PIERCE FL       X  X  X  5  5
TJSJ 184N 661W    20  X  X  X 20   COCOA BEACH FL     X  X  X  4  4
MDPP 198N 707W     6  6  X  X 12   DAYTONA BEACH FL   X  X  X  3  3
MBJT 215N 712W    11 14  X  X 25   KEY WEST FL        X  X  X  2  2
MYMM 224N 730W     1 17  2  X 20   MARCO ISLAND FL    X  X  X  2  2
MYSM 241N 745W     X  6 10  2 18   FT MYERS FL        X  X  X  2  2
 
COLUMN DEFINITION   PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  2AM SAT
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM  2AM SAT TO  2PM SAT
C FROM  2PM SAT TO  2AM SUN
D FROM  2AM SUN TO  2AM MON
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  2AM MON
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
 
RAPPAPORT
 
 
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