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HURRICANE MADELINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  12
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL   EP1598
0300Z MON OCT 19 1998
 
AT 8 PM PDT...0300Z... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED
HURRICANE WARNINGS FROM MELAQUE TO JUST SOUTHEAST OF CABO CORRIENTES
MEXICO. HURRICANE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWESTWARD FROM
MAZATLAN TO EL DORADO MEXICO.  A HURRICANE WARNING NOW EXTENDS FROM
CABO CORRIENTES TO EL DORADO MEXICO INCLUDING THE ISLAS MARIAS.  A
HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM NORTHWEST OF EL DORADO TO LOS
MOCHIS...AND ALONG THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM LA
PAZ SOUTHWARD.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 106.5W AT 19/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT  3 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  979 MB
EYE DIAMETER  15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  75 KT WITH GUSTS TO  90 KT
64 KT....... 25NE  25SE  15SW  15NW
50 KT....... 35NE  35SE  25SW  25NW
34 KT....... 75NE  60SE  50SW  50NW
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE  75SE  75SW  75NW
ALL QUADRANT RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 106.5W AT 19/0300Z
AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 106.5W
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 21.9N 106.5W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  25SW  25NW
50 KT... 35NE  35SE  35SW  35NW
34 KT... 75NE  75SE  75SW  75NW
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 22.6N 106.5W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  25SW  25NW
50 KT... 35NE  35SE  35SW  35NW
34 KT... 75NE  75SE  75SW  75NW
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 23.4N 106.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.3N 106.5W
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
 
OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 24.4N 106.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT
 
OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 26.9N 105.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z
 
JARVINEN
 
 
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