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TROPICAL STORM ISIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL   EP1098
1500Z WED SEP 02 1998
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BAJA CALIFORNIA SOUTH
OF A LINE FROM SANTA ROSALIA TO PUNTA ABREOJOS...AND FOR THE
MAINLAND COAST OF MEXICO FROM ELDORADO TO GUAYMAS.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.3N 109.5W AT 02/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  45 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT  7 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  990 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  75 KT
50 KT....... 25NE  25SE  25SW  25NW
34 KT....... 75NE 150SE 100SW  60NW
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 275SE 150SW  60NW
ALL QUADRANT RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.3N 109.5W AT 02/1500Z
AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 109.5W
 
FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 24.3N 109.6W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT
50 KT... 25NE  25SE  25SW  25NW
34 KT... 75NE 150SE 100SW  60NW
 
FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 25.6N 110.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT
50 KT... 25NE  25SE  25SW  25NW
34 KT... 75NE 150SE 100SW  60NW
 
FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 26.8N 110.8W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT
50 KT... 25NE  25SE  25SW  25NW
34 KT... 75NE 150SE 100SW  60NW

A STORM SURGE OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE IN
THE WARNING AREA...ACCOMPANIED BY BATTERING WAVES.  LARGE WAVES AND
ROUGH SEAS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST
COAST OF MEXICO FROM MANZANILLO NORTHWARD TO THE WARNING AREA...AND
SMALL CRAFT IN THAT AREA SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS
SUBSIDE.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WARNING AREA
AND PORTIONS OF MAINLAND MEXICO TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST...AND
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.3N 109.5W
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
 
OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 28.0N 111.9W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT
50 KT... 25NE  25SE  25SW  25NW
 
OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 30.5N 113.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT
50 KT... 25NE  25SE  25SW  25NW
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z
 
RAPPAPORT
 
 
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