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TROPICAL STORM MITCH FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  49
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL   AL1398
1500Z WED NOV 04 1998
 
AT 10 AM EST...1500Z...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
FLORIDA KEYS...AND FOR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SOUTHWARD FROM TARPON
SPRINGS ON THE WEST COAST AND SOUTHWARD FROM NEW SMYRNA BEACH ON THE
EAST COAST.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.8N  88.3W AT 04/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  45 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  55 DEGREES AT 12 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT
34 KT.......275NE 200SE   0SW   0NW
12 FT SEAS..275NE 200SE   0SW   0NW
ALL QUADRANT RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.8N  88.3W AT 04/1500Z
AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.5N  88.7W
 
FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 23.2N  86.4W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT
34 KT...200NE 200SE  50SW 100NW
 
FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 25.2N  83.3W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT
34 KT...175NE 175SE  50SW 100NW
 
FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 27.9N  78.9W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT
34 KT...175NE 175SE  50SW 100NW
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.8N  88.3W
 
STORM TIDES OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ASTRONOMICAL LEVELS...
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE WAVES...COULD OCCUR NEAR AND TO THE SOUTH OF
WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL ON THE FLORIDA WEST COAST.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
 
OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 30.9N  73.4W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT
 
OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 36.0N  58.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z
 
RAPPAPORT
 
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT3 AND WMO HEADER WTNT73 KNHC.
 
 
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