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HURRICANE MITCH FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  22
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL   AL1398
0300Z TUE OCT 27 1998
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE COAST OF HONDURAS...
AND FOR SWAN ISLAND.  A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR BELIZE.
A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.  INTERESTS ON THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF GUATEMALA
AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS EXTREMELY
DANGEROUS HURRICANE.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N  84.1W AT 27/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT  7 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  906 MB
EYE DIAMETER  20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 155 KT WITH GUSTS TO 185 KT
64 KT....... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW
50 KT.......100NE 100SE  75SW 100NW
34 KT.......125NE 125SE 125SW 150NW
12 FT SEAS..300NE 250SE 200SW 350NW
ALL QUADRANT RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N  84.1W AT 27/0300Z
AT 27/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N  83.8W
 
FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 17.7N  85.0W
MAX WIND 155 KT...GUSTS 185 KT
64 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW
50 KT...100NE 100SE  75SW 100NW
34 KT...125NE 125SE 125SW 150NW
 
FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 18.0N  85.5W
MAX WIND 150 KT...GUSTS 180 KT
64 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW
50 KT...100NE 100SE  75SW 100NW
34 KT...125NE 125SE 125SW 150NW
 
FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 18.2N  85.8W
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT
64 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW
50 KT...100NE 100SE  75SW 100NW
34 KT...125NE 125SE 125SW 150NW
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.4N  84.1W
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
 
OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 18.5N  86.0W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT
50 KT...100NE 100SE  75SW 100NW
 
OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 19.0N  86.0W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT
50 KT...100NE 100SE  75SW  75NW
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0900Z
 
PASCH
 
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT3 AND WMO HEADER WTNT73 KNHC.
 
 
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