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HURRICANE MITCH FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  12
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL   AL1398
2100Z SAT OCT 24 1998
 
AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING FOR JAMAICA AND THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED
A HURRICANE WATCH FOR EASTERN CUBA FROM CAMAGUEY TO GUANTANAMO.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N  78.2W AT 24/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT  5 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  976 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT
64 KT....... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW
50 KT....... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW
34 KT.......100NE 100SE  75SW  75NW
12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 100SW 100NW
ALL QUADRANT RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N  78.2W AT 24/2100Z
AT 24/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.0N  78.1W
 
FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 16.0N  78.3W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT
64 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW
34 KT...100NE 100SE  75SW  75NW
 
FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 16.8N  78.6W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT
64 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW
34 KT...100NE 100SE  75SW  75NW
 
FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 17.5N  79.5W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT
64 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW
34 KT...100NE 100SE  75SW  75NW
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.3N  78.2W
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
 
OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 18.0N  80.5W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW
 
OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 18.5N  82.5W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0300Z
 
AVILA
 
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT3 AND WMO HEADER WTNT73 KNHC.
 
 
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