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HURRICANE GEORGES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL   AL0798
0300Z SAT SEP 19 1998
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LESSER ANTILLES FROM ST.
LUCIA NORTHWARD TO ANGUILLA INCLUDING SABA AND ST. MAARTEN. A
HURRICANE WARNING COULD BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THIS AREA ON
SATURDAY MORNING.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N  50.0W AT 19/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 17 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  970 MB
EYE DIAMETER  15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT
64 KT....... 25NE  25SE  25SW  25NW
50 KT....... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW
34 KT.......105NE 110SE  80SW 110NW
12 FT SEAS..150NE 110SE 100SW 150NW
ALL QUADRANT RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N  50.0W AT 19/0300Z
AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.9N  49.1W
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 14.4N  52.7W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  25SW  25NW
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW
34 KT...105NE 110SE  80SW 110NW
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 14.9N  56.2W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW
34 KT...125NE 110SE 110SW 125NW
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 15.5N  59.7W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW
34 KT...125NE 110SE 110SW 125NW
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.0N  50.0W
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
 
OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 15.9N  62.8W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW
 
OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 16.5N  68.0W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z
 
RAPPAPORT
 
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT2 AND WMO HEADER WTNT72 KNHC.
 
 
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