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TROPICAL STORM FRANCES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL   AL0698
0900Z FRI SEP 11 1998
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE GULF OF MEXICO
FROM BAFFIN BAY TEXAS NORTH AND EAST TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA...BUT
WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  AT 4 AM
CDT...0900Z...THE WARNINGS EAST OF MORGAN CITY AND SOUTH OF BAFFIN
BAY ARE DISCONTINUED.  ALSO AT 4 AM CDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO
HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ITS COAST.
 
SMALL CRAFT FROM MORGAN CITY TO PENSACOLA FLORIDA...AND SOUTHWARD
FROM BAFFIN BAY THROUGH THE NORTHEAST COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD REMAIN
IN PORT UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.5N  97.5W AT 11/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  60 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  992 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT
34 KT.......250NE 200SE  45SW  45NW
12 FT SEAS..350NE 200SE   0SW   0NW
ALL QUADRANT RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.5N  97.5W AT 11/0900Z
AT 11/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.2N  96.8W
 
FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 29.4N  98.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT
 
FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 30.0N 100.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT
 
FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 30.5N 101.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.5N  97.5W
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
 
OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 31.0N 102.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT
 
FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z...INLAND...DISSIPATING
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/1500Z
 
RAPPAPORT
 
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT1 AND WMO HEADER WTNT71 KNHC.
 
 
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