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TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL   AL0298
1500Z THU AUG 20 1998
 
AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS OF ANTIGUA..BARBUDA...ANGUILLA...ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND
ST. EUSTATIUS.  THIS WATCH COULD BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING FOR SOME
OF THESE ISLANDS BY MID-AFTERNOON.
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N  58.0W AT 20/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  75 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 20 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT
ALL QUADRANT RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N  58.0W AT 20/1500Z
AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.7N  57.0W
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 19.2N  61.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT
34 KT...100NE  75SE  75SW 100NW
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 20.5N  64.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW
34 KT...125NE 100SE 100SW 125NW
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 21.7N  67.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW
34 KT...125NE 100SE 100SW 125NW
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.0N  58.0W
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
 
OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 23.0N  70.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW
 
OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 25.5N  73.5W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z
 
PASCH
 
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT2 AND WMO HEADER WTNT72 KNHC.
 
 
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