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ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 500 PM PDT THU AUG 1 2013 FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE.. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE GIL...LOCATED WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. 1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...LOCATED ABOUT 850 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...REMAIN POORLY ORGANIZED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND COULD BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE AFTER THAT TIME. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. 2. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS DEVELOPED ABOUT 1400 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE... 10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT... HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO FORECASTER BEVEN
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