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ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT WED MAY 15 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LOCATED ABOUT 625 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO HAVE
BECOME MORE ORGANIZED OVERNIGHT...AND IT APPEARS THAT A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD BE FORMING.  IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...ADVISORIES
COULD BE INITIATED LATER TODAY.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TODAY MARKS THE FIRST DAY OF THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC HURRICANE
SEASON...WHICH WILL RUN UNTIL NOVEMBER 30.  LONG-TERM AVERAGES FOR
THE NUMBER OF NAMED STORMS...HURRICANES...AND MAJOR HURRICANES ARE
15...8...AND 4...RESPECTIVELY.

THE LIST OF NAMES FOR 2013 IS AS FOLLOWS:

NAME           PRONUNCIATION    NAME            PRONUNCIATION
-------------------------------------------------------------
ALVIN          AL- VIN          MANUEL          MAHN WELL-
BARBARA        BAR- BRUH        NARDA           NAHR- DUH
COSME          COS- MAY         OCTAVE          AHK- TAYV
DALILA         DAH LY- LAH      PRISCILLA       PRIH SIH- LUH
ERICK          EHR- IK          RAYMOND         RAY- MUND
FLOSSIE        FLOSS- EE        SONIA           SOHN- YAH
GIL            GIL              TICO            TEE- KOH
HENRIETTE      HEN REE ETT-     VELMA           VELL- MUH
IVO            EYE VOH-         WALLIS          WAHL- LIS
JULIETTE       JEW LEE EHT-     XINA            ZEE- NAH
KIKO           KEE- KO          YORK            YORK
LORENA         LOW RAY- NA      ZELDA           ZEL- DAH

THIS PRODUCT...THE TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...BRIEFLY DESCRIBES
SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF DISTURBED WEATHER AND THEIR POTENTIAL FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  THE ISSUANCE
TIMES OF THIS PRODUCT ARE 5 AM...11 AM...5 PM...AND 11 PM PDT.
AFTER THE CHANGE TO STANDARD TIME IN NOVEMBER...THE ISSUANCE TIMES
ARE 4 AM...10 AM...4 PM...AND 10 PM PST.

A SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED TO PROVIDE
UPDATES...AS NECESSARY...IN BETWEEN THE REGULARLY SCHEDULED
ISSUANCES OF THE TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK. SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER
OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED UNDER THE SAME WMO AND AWIPS HEADERS AS THE
REGULAR TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS.

A STANDARD PACKAGE OF PRODUCTS...CONSISTING OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
PUBLIC ADVISORY...THE FORECAST/ADVISORY...THE CYCLONE DISCUSSION...
AND A WIND SPEED PROBABILITY PRODUCT...IS ISSUED EVERY SIX HOURS
FOR ALL ONGOING TROPICAL CYCLONES.  IN ADDITION...A SPECIAL
ADVISORY PACKAGE MAY BE ISSUED AT ANY TIME TO ADVISE OF SIGNIFICANT
UNEXPECTED CHANGES OR TO MODIFY WATCHES OR WARNINGS.

THE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE IS A BRIEF STATEMENT TO INFORM OF
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN A TROPICAL CYCLONE OR TO POST OR CANCEL
WATCHES OR WARNINGS. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE IS USED IN LIEU
OF OR TO PRECEDE THE ISSUANCE OF A SPECIAL ADVISORY PACKAGE. 
TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES...WHICH CAN BE ISSUED AT ANY TIME...CAN
BE FOUND UNDER WMO HEADER WTPZ61-65 KNHC...AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER
MIATCUEP1-5.

ALL NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TEXT AND GRAPHICAL PRODUCTS ARE
AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV.  NHC IS ALSO ON
FACEBOOK AT WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NOAA.NATIONALHURRICANECENTER.GOV.
NOTIFICATIONS ARE AVAILABLE VIA TWITTER WHEN SELECT NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER PRODUCTS ARE ISSUED. INFORMATION ABOUT OUR EAST
PACIFIC TWITTER FEED IS AVAILABLE AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/TWITTER.SHTML.

$$
FORECASTER BERG
NNNN
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