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ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN SEP 8 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CENTERED ABOUT 250 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION.  ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER TODAY OR TOMORROW WHILE THE
LOW MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A
HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.  INTERESTS IN THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM...AND
TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED IF A
DEPRESSION FORMS.  REGARDLESS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION...HEAVY
RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS BY
TONIGHT.

2. A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF GABRIELLE
IS CENTERED ABOUT 400 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. 
THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IS NOT WELL ORGANIZED...AND
THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS DISPLACED TO THE EAST OF
THE CENTER.  UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME EVEN LESS
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE THE LOW
MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AND THEN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. 
THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

OTHER SYSTEMS WITH DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL BEYOND 48 HOURS...

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE EXTREME
SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND BAY OF CAMPECHE IN A FEW DAYS...AND
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS SHOULD BE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT.  THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

FORECASTER BERG
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