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Graphical TWO atl
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ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI SEP 6 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO HAS SLOWED ITS FORWARD MOVEMENT
DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.  THIS HAS ALLOWED IT TO STAY OVER WATER
AND BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ADVISORY
WILL BE ISSUED IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...100 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...100 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.  THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY
TO BRING 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAINFALL...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS
OF UP TO 8 INCHES...IN THE MEXICAN STATES OF VERACRUZ AND
TAMAULIPAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  WINDS TO NEAR TROPICAL
STORM FORCE ARE ALSO EXPECTED IN A FEW SQUALLS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

2. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE...HAS BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTH OF
BERMUDA.  DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...IF
ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR DUE TO UNFAVORABLE
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS.  AFTER 48 HOURS...THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
MERGE WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM AND NO DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED.  THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.   

3. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER...THE REMNANTS OF GABRIELLE...IS
CENTERED JUST NORTH OF THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.  WHILE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED THIS MORNING...
ANY ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW DUE TO
UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...
20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.  SOME
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE IN A FEW DAYS WHEN THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES NORTHWARD OR NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS.  AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS
CURRENTLY EN ROUTE TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM.

4. A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED
ABOUT 650 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING
DISORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY.  DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM APPEARS
UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME DUE TO UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...NEAR
0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
WHILE IT MOVES TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR WEST AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

OTHER SYSTEMS WITH FORMATION POTENTIAL BEYOND 48 HOURS...

A TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN IN A DAY OR TWO...AND
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...BUT A HIGH CHANCE...60
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

FORECASTER BEVEN
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