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ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON AUG 20 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS ISSUED THE FINAL ADVISORY ON
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE GORDON...LOCATED OVER THE FAR NORTHEASTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN.

1. A WELL-DEFINED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ABOUT 800 MILES EAST
OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.  WHILE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN
SOMEWHAT LIMITED NEAR THE CENTER...ANY SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TONIGHT OR TOMORROW.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...90
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 20 TO 25 MPH.  TROPICAL STORM WATCHES COULD
SOON BE REQUIRED FOR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...AND INTERESTS IN THOSE
ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE. 

2. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NEAR AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO HAS DIMINISHED DURING THE
PAST FEW HOURS.  SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS STILL
POSSIBLE IF IT REMAINS OVER WATER DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT DRIFTS SLOWLY WESTWARD. 

3. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS FORMED ABOUT 375 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE.  SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION... AND
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT
15 TO 20 MPH. 

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/PASCH
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 16-Jul-2012 19:58:38 UTC