ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM COR
TROPICAL STORM HOWARD DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT THU AUG 20 1998

...CORRECTION FOR INITIAL INTENSITY...
 
SATELLITE PICTURES INDICATE THAT THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE LOCATED
ABOUT 425 MILES SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO HAS BECOME SIGNIFICANTLY
BETTER ORGANIZED.  THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER WHICH HAS BEEN MOSTLY
EXPOSED DURING THE DAY IS NOW UNDER THE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE PRIMARY BANDING FEATURE TO THE WEST.  A SHIP REPORTING A 40
KNOT WIND AND A 1005 MB PRESSURE WAS RECEIVED AT 00Z JUST NORTH OF
THE CENTER.  THIS ALONG WITH DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB
AND SAB JUSTIFY BRINGING THE SYSTEM TO 40 KNOTS...AND TROPICAL STORM
STATUS.  WITH NO OBVIOUS IMPEDANCES TO DEVELOPMENT...GRADUAL
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST....ALONG THE LINES OF THE STATISTICAL
HURRICANE INTENSITY PREDICTION SCHEME (SHIPS).
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/12 KNOTS.  A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
NORTH OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD ALLOW A GENERAL WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST
MOTION TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
TRACK REFLECTS THIS.  ALL OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS ARE CLOSELY
CLUSTERED ON THIS SCENARIO THROUGH 48 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
IS IN CLOSEST AGREEMENT WITH CLIPER AND P91E.
 
GUINEY
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     21/0300Z 10.6N 100.6W    40 KTS
12HR VT     21/1200Z 10.7N 102.5W    50 KTS
24HR VT     22/0000Z 11.2N 105.0W    60 KTS
36HR VT     22/1200Z 11.8N 107.4W    70 KTS
48HR VT     23/0000Z 12.5N 110.0W    80 KTS
72HR VT     24/0000Z 14.0N 114.5W    90 KTS
 
 
NNNN