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TROPICAL STORM MADELINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT MON OCT 19 1998
 
MADELINE HAS COLLAPSED...NOW DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION AND HENCE
UNCLASSIFIABLE VIA THE DVORAK TECHNIQUE.  THE WEAKENING IS DUE 
IN LARGE PART TO SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.  THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION IS NOW COMPLETELY EXPOSED.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
REDUCED TO 35 KNOTS...A MINIMUM TROPICAL STORM.  THE CYCLONE WILL
LIKELY BE DOWNGRADED TO A DEPRESSION ON THE NEXT ADVISORY UNLESS
THERE IS A STRONG RESURGENCE OF CONVECTION. THIS TIME YESTERDAY WE
HAD A 980 MB HURRICANE WITH 73 KT SURFACE WINDS.  THIS SYSTEM SHOWS
ONCE AGAIN THE DIFFICULTY IN INTENSITY FORECASTING...IN THIS CASE
RAPID WEAKENING.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 310/8 KNOTS.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST 
BRINGS THE SYSTEM ON A NORTHWEST THEN NORTH HEADING THROUGH 72
HOURS...IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SHALLOW BAMD.  THIS TRACK BRINGS
WHAT/S LEFT OF MADELINE INLAND BY 48 HOURS...IF IT SURVIVES THAT
LONG.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO WILL LIKELY DISCONTINUE THE TROPICAL STORM
WATCHES AND WARNINGS LATER TODAY.
 
GUINEY
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     19/2100Z 23.2N 108.3W    35 KTS
12HR VT     20/0600Z 23.7N 108.8W    30 KTS
24HR VT     20/1800Z 24.9N 109.7W    30 KTS
36HR VT     21/0600Z 26.5N 110.2W    25 KTS
48HR VT     21/1800Z 28.0N 110.5W    25 KTS...INLAND
72HR VT     22/1800Z 31.0N 110.5W    20 KTS...INLAND
 
 
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