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HURRICANE MADELINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT MON OCT 19 1998
 
LOCATING THE CIRCULATION CENTER OF MADELINE IS A DIFFICULT TASK
WITH INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE HURRICANE HAS DIMINISHED AND INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE
CENTER IS PARTIALLY EXPOSED AS A RESULT OF SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...PER IMAGERY AND CIMSS ANALYSES.  DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 4.0 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...
AND ARE THE BASIS FOR REDUCING THE WINDS TO 65 KNOTS.  THIS
INTENSITY WILL BE HELD UNTIL LANDFALL FOR NOW...FORECAST IN ABOUT
24 HOURS...UNTIL A DEFINITIVE TREND CAN BE ESTABLISHED THROUGH
VISIBLE IMAGERY.  

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS 360/04 KNOTS. THE SATELLITE
FIXES SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER MAY BE SLIGHTLY WEST OF THE PREVIOUS
TRACK.  THUS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED A BIT
TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY WHILE MAINTAINING THE SAME
GENERAL DIRECTION AND SPEED OF MOTION.  THERE STILL IS UNCERTAINLY
SURROUNDING WHICH FEATURE WILL DOMINATE THE STEERING OF MADELINE...
I.E. THE MID- TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NEAR THE BAJA PENINSULA OR THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD TO THE VICINITY OF THE
HURRICANE.  THE WESTWARD POSITION ADJUSTMENT SEEMS TO SUPPORT THE 
LATTER FEATURE AS THE MORE INFLUENTIAL...WITH A SLOWER NORTH TO
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. 
 
GUINEY
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     19/1500Z 22.3N 106.8W    65 KTS
12HR VT     20/0000Z 23.0N 106.9W    65 KTS
24HR VT     20/1200Z 23.9N 107.1W    65 KTS
36HR VT     21/0000Z 25.0N 107.1W    40 KTS...INLAND
48HR VT     21/1200Z 26.0N 107.0W    30 KTS...INLAND
72HR VT     22/1200Z 27.5N 106.5W    25 KTS...INLAND
 
 
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