ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE MADELINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT MON OCT 19 1998 THE CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE SO NO LARGE CHANGES ARE MADE TO THE MOTION ESTIMATE...SLOWLY NORTHWARD. THE STEERING OF MADELINE DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE ROLES OF A MID- TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NEAR THE BAJA PENINSULA AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH EXTENDS WESTWARD TO THE VICINITY OF THE HURRICANE. IF THE FORMER FEATURE DOMINATES...THEN MADELINE WOULD ACCELERATED NORTH TO NORTHEASTWARD. IF THE LATTER IS MORE INFLUENTIAL...THEN A SLOWER NORTH TO NORTHWESTWARD MOTION COULD DEVELOP. THE CURRENT OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE. THIS IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN A NORTH TO NORTHEASTWARD OPTION AS SHOWN BY SOME OF THE MODELS SUCH AS THE MEDIUM BAM AND THE BAROTROPIC..AND A NORTH TO NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AS SHOWN BY NOGAPS AND THE GFDL MODEL. THE SYSTEM DOES NOT LOOK VERY IMPRESSIVE AT THE MOMENT WITH ONLY A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION AND EVIDENCE OF SOUTHERLY SHEARING. CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS KEPT AT 75 KNOTS. VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES LATER TODAY SHOULD PROVIDE A BETTER INTENSITY ESTIMATE. NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS ANTICIPATED BEFORE LANDFALL. PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/0900Z 21.9N 106.5W 75 KTS 12HR VT 19/1800Z 22.5N 106.5W 75 KTS 24HR VT 20/0600Z 23.5N 106.5W 75 KTS 36HR VT 20/1800Z 24.5N 106.5W 45 KTS...INLAND 48HR VT 21/0600Z 25.5N 106.5W 35 KTS...INLAND 72HR VT 22/0600Z 27.5N 106.5W 25 KTS...INLAND...DISSIPATING NNNN