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HURRICANE MADELINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT SUN OCT 18 1998
 
AS THE U.S. AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT MADE ITS
LAST PASS THROUGH THE CENTER OF MADELINE IT REPORTED A CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF 980 MB.  DOWN 2 MB FROM THE PREVIOUS PASS.  THIS IS
CLOSE TO THE 979 MB REPORTED BY SATELLITE ESTIMATES SEVERAL HOURS
LATER.  SO THE PRESSURE IS SET AT 979 MB.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY
REMAINS AT 75 KNOTS.  NO STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
24-36 HOURS.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/03 KNOTS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST MOVES MADELINE ON A SLOW NORTHWARD COURSE THROUGH 48 HOURS
WITH A BEND TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST THEREAFTER. THIS SEEMS LIKE
THE MOST PLAUSIBLE SOLUTION GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN.  THE
OFFICIAL NHC TRACK IS ALMOST IDENTICAL TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH CLIPER AND LBAR...ALTHOUGH NOT AS FAST .
 
JARVINEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     19/0300Z 21.3N 106.5W    75 KTS
12HR VT     19/1200Z 21.9N 106.5W    75 KTS
24HR VT     20/0000Z 22.6N 106.5W    75 KTS
36HR VT     20/1200Z 23.4N 106.5W    65 KTS...INLAND
48HR VT     21/0000Z 24.4N 106.4W    35 KTS...INLAND
72HR VT     22/0000Z 26.9N 105.9W    25 KTS...INLAND
 
 
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