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HURRICANE MADELINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT SUN OCT 18 1998
 
SATELLITE FIXES FROM TAFB...SAB AND AFGW SUGGEST THAT MADELINE
HAS SLOWED DOWN AND IS NOW DRIFTING NORTHWARD.  THE INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE IS 010/2 KNOTS.  THE TRACK PREDICTION MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW SOME SCATTER.  THE LEFT-MOST OF THE GUIDANCE IS THE AVIATION
WHICH BRINGS MADELINE WEST THEN NORTHWEST TOWARDS BAJA WHILE THE
GFDL AND CLIPER KEEP THE SYSTEM MOVING ON A SLOW GENERAL NORTHERLY
HEADING. AS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY THIS SEEM LIKE THE MOST PLAUSIBLE
SOLUTION GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK
GOES ALONG WITH SLOW NORTH TRACK WITH A BEND BACK TOWARD THE NORTH-
NORTHEAST AFTER 36 HOURS.  THIS IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY.
 
ALTHOUGH THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS BECOME MORE EVENLY DISTRIBUTED
AROUND MADELINE THE COLDEST TOPS...-80 DEG C...REMAIN PRIMARILY
OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE.  THE OUTFLOW IS WELL-ESTABLISHED
OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE WHILE RESTRICTED OVER THE EAST.
SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST BEFORE MADELINE REACHES
THE COAST.
 
GUINEY
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     18/1500Z 20.6N 106.5W    70 KTS
12HR VT     19/0000Z 21.5N 106.4W    75 KTS
24HR VT     19/1200Z 22.3N 106.4W    75 KTS
36HR VT     20/0000Z 23.3N 106.3W    60 KTS...INLAND
48HR VT     20/1200Z 24.5N 106.0W    35 KTS...INLAND
72HR VT     21/1200Z 27.0N 105.0W    25 KTS...INLAND
 
 
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