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HURRICANE MADELINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT SUN OCT 18 1998

AN EYE HAS NOT BEEN APPARENT ALTHOUGH RECENT ENHANCED IR IMAGES SHOW
A BIT OF A WARM SPOT NEAR THE APPARENT CENTER.  THE DEEP CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO BE ASYMMETRIC WITH COLDEST TOPS PRIMARILY OVER THE
SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE.  UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS FAIRLY STRONG EXCEPT
TO THE EAST.  A LITTLE MORE STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST BEFORE
MADELINE REACHES THE COAST.

MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE NORTHWARD...010/5.  THE 06Z RUN OF THE
NCEP GLOBAL MODEL SHOWS MADELINE NEAR THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE WITH A TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. DURING THE
NEXT 2-3 DAYS.  TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME SPREAD BUT...BASED
ON THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN...THE MOST REASONABLE SOLUTION SEEMS TO BE A
GENERALLY NORTHWARD MOTION WITH A GRADUAL NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD BEND
NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD.  THIS IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE AND THE STATISTICAL/DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE MODEL NHC91.
 
PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     18/0900Z 20.8N 106.5W    70 KTS
12HR VT     18/1800Z 21.6N 106.4W    75 KTS
24HR VT     19/0600Z 22.9N 106.3W    75 KTS
36HR VT     19/1800Z 24.2N 106.2W    60 KTS...INLAND
48HR VT     20/0600Z 25.5N 106.0W    40 KTS...INLAND
72HR VT     21/0600Z 28.0N 105.0W    25 KTS...INLAND
 
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