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HURRICANE MADELINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT SAT OCT 17 1998
 
RECON MEASURED A 989 MB CENTRAL PRESSURE AND A MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL
WIND OF 70 KNOTS ON SOUTHWEST LEG. COMMENTS FROM THE RECON COMMANDER
WERE THAT THE VERTICAL MOTIONS IN THE DEEP CONVECTION WERE GIVING
THEM A VERY BUMPY RIDE.  SINCE THE RECON LEFT TAFB AND SAB ARE
GETTING COOLER TOPS AND T-NUMBERS OF 4.5.  THE PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
AT 985 MB AND THE WINDS ARE INCREASED TO 70 KTS.
 
MADELINE CONTINUES TO CREEP TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...AROUND 4 KT.  THE
HURRICANE IS LOCATED VERY NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE LARGE-SCALE
E-W RIDGE AXIS.  THE WATER-VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A SHORT-WAVE APPROACHING
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA FROM THE WEST. 
THIS IS THE FEATURE THAT THE AVN MODEL SUGGESTS WILL NOT MOVE
MADELINE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...BUT OTHER MODELS DO...SUCH AS
GFDL...BAMM...P91E...AND CLIP.  THEY INDICATE A NORTHWARD MOTION OF
5 TO 10 KNOTS.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FOLLOWS THE NORTHWARD SOLUTION
ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY SLOWER.
 
HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODS REMAIN A THREAT.
 
JARVINEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     18/0300Z 20.3N 107.0W    70 KTS
12HR VT     18/1200Z 20.8N 106.8W    75 KTS
24HR VT     19/0000Z 21.8N 106.5W    75 KTS
36HR VT     19/1200Z 23.0N 106.3W    75 KTS
48HR VT     20/0000Z 24.2N 106.2W    45 KTS...INLAND
72HR VT     21/0000Z 26.7N 105.4W    25 KTS...INLAND
 
 
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