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TROPICAL STORM MADELINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT SAT OCT 17 1998
 
MADELINE HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN INTENSITY AND THE CONVECTION IS
LIMITED AT THIS TIME.  WINDS REMAIN AT 55 KNOTS BUT THE FORECAST
TRACK BRINGS MADELIN OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
SO STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE.

MADELIN HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS BUT A
NORTH AND THEN NORTH-NORTHEAST MOTION SHOULD BEGIN DURING THE NEXT
12 HOURS AS A MIDDLE-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES.  MOST OF THE MODELS
BRING MADELINE NORTHWARD BUT AT A DIFFERENT SPEED. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE ENSEMBLE AND BRINGS THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND THEN OVER MAINLAND MEXICO.
THEREFORE...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM LOS MOCHIS TO
MAZATLAN.  THE FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN SO WATCHES AND WARNING FOR BAJA
CALIFORNIA REMAIN AT THIS TIME.    
 
THE FORECAST MOVEMENT AND WINDS ALOFT SUGGEST THAT MADELINE COULD
BRING HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODS TO A CONSIDERABLE AREA OVER MEXICO...
AND CONTRIBUTE SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE TO THE U.S. SOUTH-CENTRAL OR
SOUTHWESTERN STATES.
 
AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     17/0900Z 19.8N 108.0W    55 KTS
12HR VT     17/1800Z 20.4N 108.0W    60 KTS
24HR VT     18/0600Z 21.5N 108.0W    65 KTS
36HR VT     18/1800Z 23.5N 108.0W    70 KTS
48HR VT     19/0600Z 25.0N 107.0W    30 KTS...INLAND
72HR VT     20/0600Z 28.0N 105.5W    20 KTS...INLAND
 
 
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